The World is currently with its eyes on one of the most important decisions to be made by a nation in recent history: The U.S. 2020 Elections. It might seem a bit of a pretentious statement, but the truth is that this single event will probably determine, to a certain extent, the course of the current pandemic crisis.
It is undeniable that the outcome of these elections might be greatly influenced by the crisis itself. In a study from the University-Corpus Christi in Texas, USA, Andrew F. Johnson, Wendi Pollock and Beth Rauhaus try to use data from the previous US elections to show how COVID-19 might create a mass casualty event and how that could determine the result of the elections by altering American demographics.
For example, they argue that, given their assumptions and their limitations, if the State of Michigan faced the 149,000 adult fatalities projected at the time, data suggests that “11,145 more Republicans than Democrats” could perish. This fact, given that in the 2016 elections Trump “carried the state by 10,704 votes”, gives a hint of the power COVID might have in the determining the fate of this country.
Can COVID-19 really shape nations?
- Johnson, A. F., Pollock, W., & Rauhaus, B. (2020, April 17). Mass casualty event scenarios and political shifts: 2020 election outcomes and the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic. Taylor & Francis. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10841806.2020.1752978
Advisor to the Board
Student of the Master’s Degree in Economics
Nova School of Business and Economics